Showing posts with label Polar Bears. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polar Bears. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Climategate; This Changes Everything

The airwaves have been abuzz and the internet has been on fire with emails and forwarded articles addressing what could turn out to be the biggest scandal since Watergate: the hacking or insider release of e-mails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia—which has been dubbed Climategate. Even youtube videos have been popping up! While those of us who work with global warming issues have been deeply immersed in this game-changer, many have heard nothing about it or have only heard a snippet and wonder what all the noise is about.

The news is still relatively new—just few days old—and we will surely have many more postings about this, but this one offers a great summary of the issue and the potential consequences. Here Michael Fox, a regular contributor to CARE’s Blog, shows why this news should change everything in the climate change debate and end the push for cap and trade.

Read on. Learn what all the noise is about. Pass this on to everyone you know. It is big news. What do you think? Add your comments.

The Collapse of the Global Warming Myth
If this scandal of November 20, 2009 continues in the horrendous path it’s taken, it should be the end of the man-made CO2 global warming hypothesis. Beyond the warmers inability to prove their simple hypothesis after more than 20 years and $80 billion dollars, has been their collective bullying behavior patterns. This bullying has been so outrageous and out of character of honest scientists, that it is as offensive as it is noticeable. This behavior suggested to me that this group of people were being less than honorable in their conduct of their work.

In a speech last Spring in New York by John Sununu I was reminded that the climate warming leaders were high paid bullies who determined who got funded (the recipients of those $89 Billion), and who didn't, who got published and who didn't, and who got the acclaim, and who didn't. Much of this is now confirmed in the released emails from Hadley/CRU.

The release of 62 Mbytes of the climate research data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia in computer files has been momentous, almost unique in human history (http://tinyurl.com/yha4lxn). During the 24 hours following the release of these 62 Mbytes of documents, emails, letters, and reports, all became public knowledge around the world and thousands are pouring over the contents.

While still in the beginning stages of analyses, gleaned information has been showing horrendous levels of corruption, suborning subterfuge and deceptions, and controlling the science journals in limiting publications of research which do not support the AGW hypothesis. I have never ever seen anything like this, so high level, so unethical, and so evil.

I say evil since the unproven AGW hypothesis promoted by these insiders, is the basis for the trillion dollar Cap and Trade legislation and the redistribution of trillions from the US to the rest of the world. It is the basis for the Copenhagen meeting coming up in December which is designed how best to cripple the economics of the west through increased energy costs and energy rationing. It is the basis for the EU and the UN asking the US to pay trillions in reparations to all of those 3rd world nations which have been "damaged" by global warming.

These nation members walk the halls of the UN promoting "justifications” for reparations for their "damages" and their need for our wealth. It is the basis for demanding green energy sources to be installed with trillions of our dollars all over the 3rd world. Green energy sources already installed in the 3rd world, are not working well either. This debate has profound global implications and I find it contemptible that adults, Ph.D.s or not, would works so fanatically to achieve these destructive goals.

I also point out the thousands of media, academics, environmentalists, legislators, and movie elites who have taken strong and powerful positions in this debate, as if the AGW hypothesis has been validated. It hasn't. All of them have failed to ask the simple question "Show us the evidence that man-made CO2 causes global warming." That such people, presumed to be Americans, could promote and defend such a dangerous policy for our nation, is stunning.

Many of the global warming supporters seem to think that a photo of a polar bear on an ice floe is evidence that man-made CO2 is the cause!! The implied message is that this has never happened before, that man is causing it, that it is dangerous, which is all nonsense. They also seem to think that a photo-shopped video of a tidal wave roaring through downtown Manhattan is evidence of sea level rise, or that an iceberg calving from a glacier is evidence. We might also add that consensus is not evidence either, nor are appeals from high authority, nor are computer model predictions. If it weren’t for faulty computer models there would be no controversy at all, since real world measured evidence is still unreported.

Too few seem to have the wits to ask for a thermometer or ask for real Temp data, or sea level data, or hurricane data, or polar ice data. Also missing from the discussions is the large program needed to achieve high quality of all of the data, and how that is sustained. I have never seen a word of a Quality Assessment/Quality Control programs being used within the climate science realm. Then there is the entire issue of pathetically poor quality of the climate computer modeling programs. Anthony Watts at www.whatsupwiththat.com has undertaken to examine the low quality of the temperature stations and the low grade erratic temperature data they produce. His findings also show low grade station and data management as practiced by our climate agencies.

The British seem now to have realized the damage to all of science which has been done by the AGW crowd at the Climate Research Unit (CRU). In response to recent revelations contained in leaked e-mails originating from the CRU at the University of East Anglia, Lord Lawson, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), has called for a rigorous and independent inquiry into the matter. While reserving judgment on the contents of the e-mails, Lord Lawson said these are very serious issues and allegations that reach to the heart of scientific integrity and credibility:

"Astonishingly, what appears, at least at first blush, to have emerged is that (a) the scientists have been manipulating the raw temperature figures to show a relentlessly rising global warming trend; (b) they have consistently refused outsiders access to the raw data; (c) the scientists have been trying to avoid freedom of information requests; and (d) they have been discussing ways to prevent papers by dissenting scientists being published in learned journals."

"There may be a perfectly innocent explanation. But what is clear is that the integrity of the scientific evidence on which not merely the British Government, but other countries, too, through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, claim to base far-reaching and hugely expensive policy decisions, has been called into question. And the reputation of British science has been seriously tarnished. A high-level independent inquiry must be set up without delay."

People in the media, academics, legislators, movie elites, and environmentalist group have been quite sympathetic to the AGW promoters, and with apologies to Sherlock Holmes they have been the “The Dogs Which Didn't Bark”. They knew or should have known that these climate crimes were being committed and they knew or should have known who was committing them. They not only did nothing to stop them, they attacked, insulted, and dismissed those who objected. These are actions of dangerous people, too, and are unforgivable.

Michael Fox, Ph.D., is a nuclear scientist and a science and energy resource for Hawaii Reporter and a science analyst for the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii, is retired and now lives in Eastern Washington. He has nearly 40 years experience in the energy field. He has also taught chemistry and energy at the University level. His interest in the communications of science has led to several communications awards, hundreds of speeches, and many appearances on television and talk shows.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Respect Those Who Seek the Truth, Be Wary of Those Who Claim to have Found It

You may well have already read this, as it has been circulating throughout the Internet. CARE has been sent several copies of this complete speech. However, if you have not read it, we encourage you to do so. It is an excellent primer on today’s overall energy scene--though it is a bit long. To be complete, it has to be. We suggest that you print it out and have a copy ready to pass around to others.

This speech was given by Questar Chairman, President and CEO Keith O. Rattie. It was given to college students at Utah Valley University and Brigham Young University. To make it an easier read, we have edited it slightly and removed the content about Questar that was relevant for that audience, but occupied unnecessary space for you. As you read, you’ll sense the young age of the intended audience, but we’ve removed the obvious inferences. You’ll also glean a slight bias toward natural gas--as Questar is a natural gas company. If you believe, as he implies, that climate change is not a crisis, than the advantages of clean, natural gas are less relevant.

With that said, CARE believes, as Rattie states in Reality 1: “America and the rest of the world will need all the energy that markets can deliver. We’re going to need it all--oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal, biofuels.” It is all part of the complete energy picture. Read on!


Energy Myths and Realities
Thirty-three years ago I was trying to decide what to do with my career after graduating with my degree in Electrical Engineering. I made a decision to go to work for an oil company--Chevron--on what turns out to have been a false premise: I was convinced that by the time I reached the age I am today that America and the world would no longer be running on fossil fuels. Chevron was pouring lots of money into alternatives--and they had lots of money and the incentive to find alternatives--and I wanted to be part of the transition.

Fast forward 33 years. Today, we are being told that by the time today’s students are my age the world will no longer be running on fossil fuels.

I’m going to try to do something that seems impossible these days--and that’s have an honest conversation about energy policy, global warming and what it means for America’s energy future--and for you, the generation that will have to live with the consequences of the policy choices we make. My goal is to inform you with easily verifiable facts--not hyperbole and propaganda--and to appeal to your common sense.

There may be no greater challenge facing mankind today--and your generation in particular--than figuring out how we’re going to meet the energy needs of a planet that may have 10 billion people living on it by the middle of this century. The magnitude of that challenge becomes even more daunting when you consider that of the 6.2 billion people on the planet today, nearly two billion people don’t even have electricity--never flipped a light switch.

Now, when I started my career with Chevron in the mid-1970s the “consensus” at the time was that America and the world were running out of oil. Ironically, the media back then was also declaring a scientific consensus that the planet was cooling, fossil fuels were to blame, and we were all going to freeze to death unless we kicked our fossil fuel habit. We were told we needed to find alternatives to oil--fast. That task, we were told, was too important to leave to markets, so government needed to intervene with massive taxpayer subsidies for otherwise uneconomic forms of energy. That thinking led to the now infamous 1977 National Energy Plan, an experiment with central planning that failed miserably. Fast-forward to today, and: déjà vu. This time the fear is not so much that we’re running out of oil, but that we’re running out of time--the earth is getting hotter, humans are to blame, and we’re all doomed unless we find alternatives to oil, gas and coal--fast. Once again we’re being told that the job is too important to be left to markets.

Well, the doomsters of the 1970s turned out to be remarkably wrong. My bet is that today’s doomsters will be proven wrong. Over the past 33 years mankind has consumed more than three times the world’s known oil reserves in 1976--and today proven oil reserves are nearly double what they were before we started. The story with natural gas is even better--here and around the world enormous amounts of natural gas have been found. More will be found. And of course, the 30-year cooling trend that prompted the global cooling scare in the mid-70s abruptly ended in the late 70s, replaced by with a 20-year warming trend that peaked in 1998.

The lesson that we should’ve learned from the 1970s is that when it comes to deciding how much energy gets used, what types of energy get used, and where, how and by whom energy gets used--that job is too important not to be left to markets.

Now, I’d love to stand up here and debate the science of global warming. The mainstream media, of course long ago declared that debate over--global warming is a planetary emergency, we’ve got to change the way we live now. I’ve followed this debate closely for over 15 years. I read everything I can get my hands on. I’m an engineer, so I try to bypass the media’s penchant for alarmism--“World coming to an end--details at 11”-- and go straight to the actual science. My research convinces me that claims of a scientific consensus mislead the public and policy makers--and often reflect another agenda.

Yes, planet earth does appear to be warming--but by a not so unusual and not so alarming one degree over the past 100 years. Indeed, global average temperatures have increased by about one degree per century since the end of the so-called Little Ice Age 250 years ago. And, yes carbon dioxide concentration in the upper atmosphere has increased over the past 250 years from about 280 parts per million in 1750 to about 380 parts per million today--that’s .00038. What that number tells you is that carbon dioxide--the gas that everyone in this room exhales every three seconds or so, the gas that plants need to grow--is a trace gas, comprising just four out of every 10,000 molecules in the atmosphere. But it’s a very important trace gas--without CO2 in the atmosphere, the earth would be a lifeless ball covered with ice. And yes, most scientists believe that humans are responsible for much of that increase.

But that’s where the alleged consensus ends. Contrary to the righteous certitude we get from some, no one knows how much warming will occur in the future, nor how much of any warming that does occur will be due to man, and how much to nature. No one knows what the impact of warming will be, nor how easily people, plants and species will adapt to warming. When you hear someone claim they know, I suggest Mark Twain’s advice: respect those who seek the truth, be wary of those who claim to have found it.

My views on this issue changed dramatically about a decade ago when I looked at the inputs to one of the global circulation models (GCM) that had been built to predict warming over the next century. If the only input were carbon dioxide, the output would be simple--doubling of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere would result in only about a 1 degree increase in global average temperatures over the next 100 years. But the earth’s climate is what geek engineers refer to as a “non-linear, dynamic system.” There are dozens of inputs, and as I studied the model further I concluded that many of the inputs into these models are little more than the opinion of the scientist--in some cases, just a guess. For example, water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas--far more potent than CO2. I discovered that scientists do not agree on how to model water vapor, clouds, precipitation and evaporation. Some argue that clouds amplify CO2 forcing, others believe precipitation acts as the earth’s thermostat. The point is there’s no consensus this fundamental issue.

But the reality for American consumers is that whether you agree that the science is settled or not, the political science is settled. The new Congress has promised to “do something”. Carbon dioxide regulation is coming. Indeed, President Obama’s hope of shrinking the massive federal budget deficit depends on vast new carbon revenues from a tax on carbon energy--so called “cap and trade.” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has promised a bill by May.

Under cap-and-trade, the government would try to create a market for carbon dioxide by selling credits to companies that emit carbon dioxide. They would set a cap for the maximum amount of CO2 emissions. Over time, the cap would be lowered. In theory, this will induce companies to invest in lower-carbon technologies, thus reducing emissions to avoid the cost of buying credits from other companies that have already met their emissions goals. The costs of the credits would be passed on to consumers. Because virtually everything we do and consume in modern life has a carbon footprint, the cost of just about everything will go up. This in theory will cause each of us to choose products that have a lower-carbon footprint. Any way you slice it, cap and trade a tax on the way we live our lives--one that by design will produce a windfall for government.

Here’s the crucial point. The long term goal is ‘80 by 50’– an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

Please indulge me as we do the math on what ‘80 by 50’ means, using Utah as an example. Utah’s carbon footprint today is about 66 MM tons per year. Our population is 2.6 MM. You divide those two numbers, and the average Utahan today has a carbon footprint of about 25 tons per year. An 80% reduction in Utah’s carbon footprint by 2050 implies a reduction from 66 MM tons today to about 13 MM tons per year by 2050. If Utah’s population continues to grow at 2% per year, by 2050 there will be about 6 MM people living in our state. So 13 MM tons divided by 6 MM people = 2.2 tons per person per year. Under 80 by 50 by the time you folks are about my age you will be required to have a carbon footprint of just 2.2 tons per year.

Q: when was the last time Utah’s carbon footprint was as low as 2.2 tons per person?

A: not since Brigham Young and the Mormon pioneers first entered the Wasatch Valley and declared “this is the place”.

You reach a similar conclusion when you do the math on ‘80 by 50’ for the entire country. ‘80 by 50’ would require a reduction in America’s carbon footprint from about 20 tons per person per year today, to less than 2 tons per person per year in 2050--again, a 90% reduction in per capita carbon footprint.

Q: when was America’s carbon footprint as low as 2 tons per person per year?

A: not since the Pilgrims arrived at Plymouth Rock in 1620.

In short, ‘80 by 50’ means that by the time you folks are my age, you won’t be allowed to use anything made with--or made possible by--fossil fuels.

So I want to focus today on this critical question: “How on God’s green earth--pun intended--are you going to do what my generation said we would do but didn’t: wean yourselves from fossil fuels in just four decades?” That’s a conversation that each of you, and indeed, all Americans need to engage in now -- because when it comes to “how” there clearly is no consensus. Simply put, with today’s energy technologies, we can’t get there from here.

The hallmark of this dilemma is our inability to reconcile our prosperity and our way of life with our environmental ideals. We Americans love our cars. We like the freedom to “move about the country”--to drive to work, fly to conferences, visit distant friends and family. We aspire to own the biggest house we can afford. We like to keep our homes and offices warm in the winter and cool in the summer. We like devices that use electricity--computers, flat screen TVs, cell phones, the Internet, and many other conveniences of modern life that come with a power cord. We want food that’s low cost, high quality, and free of bugs--which means farmers must use fertilizers and pesticides made from fossil fuels. We like things made of plastic and clothes made with synthetic fibers--and all of these things depend on abundant, affordable, growing supplies of energy.

And guess what? We share this planet with 5.9 billion other people who all want the same damn things.

America’s energy use has been growing at about 1.5 % per year, driven by population growth and prosperity. But while our way of life depends on ever-increasing amounts of energy, we’re downright schizophrenic when it comes to the things that energy companies must do to deliver the energy that makes modern life possible.

We want energy security--we don’t like being dependent on foreign oil. But we also don’t like drilling in the US. Millions of acres of prospective onshore public lands here in the Rockies plus the entire east and west coast of the US are off-limits to drilling for a variety of reasons, some legitimate, some not. We hate paying $2 per gallon for gasoline--but not as much as we hate the refineries that turn unusable crude oil into gasoline. We haven’t allowed anyone to build a new refinery in the US in over 30 years. We expect the lights to come on when we flip the switch, but we don’t like coal, the source of 40% of our electricity--it’s dirty and mining scars the earth. We also don’t like nuclear power, the source of nearly 20% of our electricity--it’s clean, but we’re afraid of it. Hydropower, the source of about 6% of our electricity is clean and renewable. But it has also been blacklisted--dams hurt fish.

We don’t want pollution of any kind, in any amount, but we also don’t want to be asked: “how much are we willing to pay for environmental perfection?” When it comes to global warming, Time magazine tells us to “be worried, be very worried”--and we say we are--but we don’t act that way.

Let me suggest that our conversation about how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions must begin with a few “inconvenient” realities.

Reality 1: America’s and the world’s demand for energy will grow by 30-50% over the next two decades--in fact it will more than double and could triple by the time you’re my age. Simply put, America and the rest of the world will need all the energy that markets can deliver. We’re going to need it all--oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal, biofuels.

Reality 2: There are no near-term alternatives to oil, natural gas, and coal. Like it or not, the world runs on fossil fuels, and it will for decades to come. The US government’s own forecast shows that fossil fuels will supply about 85% of total world energy demand in 2030--roughly the same as today. Yes, someday we’ll find alternatives. But that day is still a long way off. It’s not about will. It’s not about who’s in the White House. It’s about thermodynamics and economics.

Now, I was told back in the 1970s the same that you’re being told today: that wind and solar power are ‘alternatives’ to fossil fuels. A more honest description would be ‘supplements’. Taken together, wind and solar power today account for just one-sixth of 1% of America’s annual energy consumption today. Let me repeat that statistic--one-sixth of one percent--.0016.

I’m holding a pie chart showing total US primary energy demand today. PowerPoint won’t even create a thin slice for wind and solar--it’s just a line.

Back when I was starting my career Jimmy Carter declared that America would be out of oil and gas by 1990, and declared alternative energy the “moral equivalent of war.” Thirty years and $30 billion in government subsidies and all we get for all the wind farms and all the solar electricity plants in operation in this country today is a thin line on a pie chart.

Undaunted by all of this, President Obama has proposed to double wind and solar power generation in this country by the end of his first term. I would first point out that the line on this pie chart will become a slightly thicker line by the end of his first term. I would also point out that wind and solar power doubled in just the last three years of the George W. Bush administration. I’ll grant you that W. started from a smaller baseline, so doubling again over the next four years will be a taller order. But if President Obama’s goal is achieved, wind and solar together will grow from one-sixth of one percent to a combined one-third of one percent of total primary energy use--and that assumes energy consumption remains stagnant, which of course it will not.

The problems with wind and solar power become apparent when you look at their footprint. To generate electricity comparable to a 1,000 MW gas-fired power plant you’d have to build a wind farm with at least 500 very tall windmills occupying 40,000 acres of land. What about solar power? Well, here’s a photo of “America’s most productive utility-scale solar electricity plant”. It has a capacity 8.2 MW, and it’s located on 82 acres of land in southwest Colorado. When you take into account the fact that the sun doesn’t always shine, you would need roughly 250 of these plants, occupying roughly 20,000 acres to replace a single 1,000 MW gas-fired power plant.

By comparison, a 1,000 MW gas-fired power plant can be built on about 10 -15 acres. (Another example, you’ll find a photo of Sempra energy’s El Dorado Solar near Las Vegas on their website. 10 MW--largest of its kind in North America--built next to a 500 MW gas-fired power plant. They plan to run the gas plant and “supplement” gas-power with solar when its available. This is the current state of the art).

The Salt Lake Tribune recently celebrated the planned startup of a 14 MW geothermal plant near Beaver, Utah. That’s wonderful! But the Tribune failed to put 14 MW into perspective. Utah has over 7,000 MW of installed generating capacity, primarily coal. America has one million MW of installed capacity. Because US demand for electricity has been growing at about 2% per year--we need to build 10-20,000 MW of new capacity every year to keep pace with growth. There’s a worldwide building boom in new coal-fired power plants--over 200,000 MW under construction, over 30,000 MW in China. In fact, there are 30 coal plants under construction in the US today that when complete will burn about 70 million tons of coal per year.

Why did my generation fail to develop wind and solar? Because our energy choices are ruthlessly ruled, not by political judgments, but by the immutable laws of thermodynamics. In engineer-speak, turning diffused sources of energy such as photons in sunlight or the kinetic energy in wind requires massive investment to concentrate that energy into a form that’s usable on any meaningful scale.

What’s more, the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine. Unless or until there’s significant breakthrough in high-density electricity storage--a problem that has confounded scientists for more than a century--wind and solar can never be relied upon to provide base load power.

But it’s not just thermodynamics. It’s economics. Over the past 150 years America has invested trillions of dollars in our existing energy systems--offshore platforms, power plants, the grid, steam and gas turbines, railroads, pipelines, distribution infrastructure, refineries, service stations, boilers, airplanes, cars, trucks, appliances, etc. Changing that infrastructure to a system based on renewable energy will take decades and massive new investment.

To be clear, we need all the wind and solar power the markets can deliver at prices we can afford. But please, let’s get real -- wind and solar are not “alternatives” to fossil fuels.

Reality 3: Carbon cap and trade regulation will drive the cost of energy painfully higher. Obama’s budget puts the cost at $650 MM over the next decade. Some believe that this estimate could be off by a factor of three--suggesting the true cost will approach $2 trillion over the next decade. As I mentioned, the businesses that are forced to buy credits will pass this cost on in the price of their goods--we’ll all pay for it.

Aside from the enormous cost, I hope you would ask: will cap and trade work? In my opinion the answer is no. It won’t work until we have viable alternatives to fossil fuels that can be delivered to markets at scale and at a cost that is politically and economically acceptable.

The European Union implemented a cap and trade scheme in an effort to meet their Kyoto commitments to reduce carbon emissions to below 1990 levels by 2012. There’s a reason why they’re failing: no country is willing to sacrifice their economy and their standard of living to do so. Europe’s cap and trade scheme was designed to fail--and it’s working as designed.

Let me do the math to explain why Kyoto would have failed in the US and why I think Obama’s cap and trade scheme will also fail.

Americans were responsible for about 5 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions in 1990. By 2005 that amount had risen to about 5.8 billion tons. Let’s suppose that the US had signed the Kyoto treaty back in 1997--incidentally, Bill Clinton was President and Al Gore was Vice President when the Senate voted 95-0 to reject Kyoto--the US would’ve committed to cut manmade CO2 emissions to 7% below that 1990 level--to about 4.6 billion tons, a 1.2 billion ton per year cut.

Q: what would it take to cut CO2 emissions by 1.2 billion tons per year by 2012?

A: a lot more sacrifice than just riding your Schwin to work or school, and changing light bulbs.

We could’ve outlawed gasoline. In 2005 gasoline use in America generated about 1.1 B tons of CO2. That would almost get us there. Or, we could shut down over half of the coal-fired power plants in this country--coal plants generated about 2 B tons of CO2 in 2005. Of course, before we did that we’d have to get about 60 MM Americans and a significant number of American businesses to volunteer to go without electricity.

This simple math is not friendly to those who demand that government to mandate sharp cuts in manmade carbon dioxide emissions--now.

Reality 4: Even if America does cut CO2 emissions, the same computer models that predict manmade warming over the next century also predict that Kyoto-type CO2 cuts will have no discernible effect on global average temperatures for decades, if at all. The models show that Kyoto reductions would prevent only a small fraction of one degree of warming over the next 50 years. When was the last time you read that in the paper? We’ve been told that Kyoto was “just a first step.” You may want to ask: “what’s the second step?”

That begs another question: “how much are Americans willing to pay for ‘a first step’ that has no discernible effect on global climate?”

The answer here in Utah is: not much, according to a public opinion poll conducted by Dan Jones and Associates published in the Deseret News. 63% of those surveyed said they’re worried about global warming. But when asked how much they’d be willing to see their electricity bills go up to help cut carbon dioxide emissions, only half were willing to pay more for electricity. Only 18% were willing to see their power bill go up by 10% or more. Only three percent were willing to see their power bill go up by 20%.

Here’s the rub: many Europeans today pay at least 20% more for electricity as a consequence of their (failed) efforts to severe the link between modern life and CO2 emissions.

If Americans aren’t willing to pay a lot more for their energy, how do we reduce CO2 emissions? Well, here are four things we can all agree on.

First, we need to improve energy efficiency.

Second, we need to stop wasting energy.

Third, we need to conserve energy.

Fourth, we need to rethink our irrational fear of nuclear power.

Fifth, we need to convert from higher-carbon coal and oil to low-carbon natural gas. The good news: we can now do so without driving the price of natural gas to unacceptable high levels.

Indeed, 2008 will be remembered in the energy industry as the year US natural gas producers changed the game for US energy policy. Smart people in my industry have ‘cracked the code’--we’ve figured out how to produce stunning amounts of natural gas from shale formations right here in the US As a result, we can now say with confidence that America and the world are “swimming” in natural gas. US onshore natural gas production has grown more than 20% over the past three years, a feat that most energy experts thought impossible a few years ago. America’s known natural gas resource base now exceeds 100 years of supply at current US consumption--and that number is sure to get bigger. Abundant supplies mean that natural gas prices over the next decade and beyond will likely be much lower than over the past five years. While prices may spike from time to time in response to sudden, unexpected changes in supply or demand--for example, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or extreme cold or hot weather--these spikes will be temporary.

Greater use of natural gas produced in America--by American companies who pay American taxes--will help reduce oil imports. Unlike oil, 98% of America’s natural gas supply comes from North America.

What’s more, we don’t need massive new investment in gas-fired power plants to substitute gas for coal. I mentioned earlier that America has about one million MW of installed electric generation capacity. Forty percent of that capacity is built to run on natural gas--about 400,000 MW. That compares to just 312,000 MW of coal capacity. But unlike those coal plants, which run at an average load factor of about 75%, America’s existing, installed natural gas-fired power plants operate with an average load factor of less than 25%. Turns out that we’ve got a quick and easy way to cut carbon emissions without driving the price of electricity through the roof--use clean burning, low-carbon, American-made natural gas in our existing, underutilized gas-fired power plants.

Sixth, your generation needs to focus on new technology and not just assume it, as many in my generation did back in the 70s--and as many in Congress continue to do today.

For example, carbon capture and sequestration will be hugely expensive and it’ll take decades to implement on any meaningful scale. The high costs will be passed through in electricity rates to consumers. It’s not just the capture part--we’ll have to construct a massive pipeline grid comparable to our existing natural gas pipeline grid, and drill thousands of wells to transport and pump massive amounts of CO2 into the ground. The facilities required to do this will use huge amounts of energy--which most likely will come from fossil fuels, negating some of the carbon reduction benefits. We’re not sure where we’re going to put all this CO2. Questar is one of the largest owner-operators of underground natural gas storage. Gas storage is in high demand--we’re always looking for places to build cost-effective storage. But I can tell you that there aren’t many places left that are economic to develop. That will be the case with CO2 sequestration as well.

But the point is, R&D aimed at allowing us to continue to use fossil fuels while waiting for breakthroughs in other technologies seems a rational thing to do.

Seventh, it’s time to have an honest discussion about alternative responses to global warming than what will likely be a futile attempt to eliminate CO2 emissions related to fossil fuel use. In truth, while many scientists believe man’s use of fossil fuels is at least partly responsible for global warming, many also believe the amount of warming will be modest and the planet will easily adapt. Just about everyone agrees that a modest amount of warming won’t harm the planet. In fact, highly-respected scientists such as Harvard astrophysicist Willie Soon believe that added CO2 in the atmosphere may actually benefit mankind because more CO2 helps plants grow and increases biodiversity. When was the last time you read that in the paper?

You’ve no doubt heard the argument that even if global warming turns out not to be as bad as some are saying, we should still cut carbon emissions--as an insurance policy--the so-called precautionary principle. While appealing in its simplicity, there are three major problems with the precautionary principle.

First, none of us live our lives according to the precautionary principle. Let me give you just one example. Around the world about 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents--about 3,200 deaths a day. At that pace, 120 million people will die this century in a car wreck somewhere in the world. We could save the lives of 120 million people by banning cars and trucks, or by imposing a 5 mile per hour speed limit worldwide. How many of you can live with a 5 MPH speed limit to save 120 million lives? Of course we don’t--we accept trade-offs. We implicitly do a cost-benefit analysis and conclude that we’re not going to do without our cars, even if doing so would save 120 million lives. Don’t you think we should insist on an honest cost-benefit analysis for cap and trade regulation?

Second, the media dwells on the potential harm from global warming, but ignores the fact that the costs borne to address it will also harm us. We have a finite amount of wealth in the world. We have a long list of problems--hunger, poverty, malaria, nuclear proliferation just to name a few. Your generation should ask: how can we do the most good with our limited resources? The opportunity cost of diverting a large part of current wealth to solve a potential problem 50-100 years from now means we do “less good” dealing with these other problems.

Third, economists will tell you that the consequence of what is in effect a huge tax on the way we live our lives will be slower economic growth. Slower economic growth, compounded over several decades, means that we leave future generations with less wealth to deal with the consequences of global warming, whatever they may be.

In truth, mankind has proven to be remarkably adaptive. Humans live north of the Arctic Circle where temperatures are below zero most of the year. Roughly one-third of mankind today lives in tropical climates where temperatures often exceed 100 degrees. In fact, you can take every one of the potential problems caused by global warming and identify lower-cost ways to deal with that problem than rationing energy use. For example, if in fact melting arctic ice causes the sea level to rise, a wealthier world will adapt over time by moving away from the beach or building retaining walls to protect beachfront property. What about the polar bear? Polar bears have survived sometimes dramatic climate changes over thousands of years, most recently the so called “medieval warm period” of 1000-1300 A.D. in which large parts of the arctic glaciers disappeared and Greenland was truly “green”. It’s an established fact that more polar bears die each year from gunshot wounds than from drowning. The first thing we need to do to protect polar bears is to stop shooting them.

Let me close by returning to the lessons my generation learned from the 1970s energy crisis. We learned that energy choices favored by politicians but not confirmed by markets are destined to fail. If history has taught us anything it’s that we should let markets determine how much energy gets used, what types of energy get used, and where, how and by whom energy gets used. What’s more, no form of energy is perfect, thus only markets can weigh the advantages and disadvantages of different energy forms. Instead, government’s role is to set reasonable standards for environmental performance, and make sure markets work.

I’ve tried to cover a lot of ground this afternoon. I hope my comments provoke at least some of you to become engaged in the discussion about America’s energy future. Most of all I wish you freedom, prosperity--and abundant supplies of energy at prices you can afford.

Monday, March 31, 2008

What Happened to the Starving Children?

Have you wondered, “What happened to the starving children?” We have. Television ads used to be filled with images of desperate children in third world countries who needed our help.

Now, we have warnings about global warming and the need for energy independence. The Natural Resources Defense Council recently sent out a mailing designed to make it look as if it was sent personally from Leonardo DiCaprio begging us to protect the polar bear, “The polar bear is sending us a desperate S.O.S.” The mailing even offered a free tote bag (with a gift of $10 or more) emblazoned with the words “Save the Polar Bear!” and featuring a cuddly looking graphic of a mother polar bear with her cubs.

One has to wonder, are there no more staving children? Is the polar bear more important that human life? (Check out past postings: Food or Fuel and People or the Planet.)

At CARE, we have been concerned with the unintended consequences of global warming’s politics. We do not believe anyone wants to harm the earth. (Well, maybe a few characters from an Austin Powers movie.) When people hear about polar bears drowning, they want to do the right thing. But, they are not aware of what taking preventative measures, in case the Climate change hysterics are warranted, will cost them personally—or what the other unintended consequences might be. We believe that if people have the complete picture, they will make better choices.

Here, one of CARE’s Energy Counsel Members Dennis Avery looks into one of those unintended consequences: the inability to feed the hungry. Yes, even though the needs of the hungry have been downed out by the supposed needs of the polar bears, etc., the hungry are still out there—and getting hungrier.



Biofuels Forcing World To Ration Food Aid
The World Food Program is preparing to ration food aid for the world’s hungriest poor. Why? Primarily because we’re burning food in our automobiles. The rich-country mandates for biofuels have doubled and tripled world food prices in less than three years.

The World Food Program’s costs are rising by millions of dollars per week and the donations aren’t, warns WFP executive director Josette Sheeran. The WFP is trying to feed more than 70 million people in 78 countries with voluntary contributions—but now can’t afford to keep its agreed-upon commitments.

World corn prices are above $5 a bushel, up from $1.86 three years ago. Prices for wheat, soybeans, rice and even cotton are rising as they’re crowded out of field space by biofuel crops. Pakistan says it will reimpose food rationing for the first time since the 1980s. China’s food inflation rate is 18.2 percent, and the Chinese have blocked further expansion of their fledgling biofuel program.

Oxfam points out that the poor in the Third World must often spend 60-80 percent of their incomes for food, so the price increases are a drastic threat to their well-being.
In Yemen, the prices of mostly-imported bread and other staples have nearly doubled in recent months, with at least a dozen people killed in food riots.

The underweight proportion of the world’s children under five had dropped by 20 percent since 1990—but that vital progress may now be reversed by the biofuel subsidies. Meanwhile, while U.S. and European officials stubbornly insist that burning millions of tons of corn, sugar and palm oil in our gas tanks has nothing to do with the soaring prices of farm commodities.

“The fundamental cause is high income growth,” claims Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute. He blames increased meat consumption in such high-growth nations as China and India. But both those big countries have largely supplied their own grain and meat increases over the past 15 years.

The commodity-savvy Financial Times is more realistic. “Biofuels will not feed the hungry,” it warned in a recent editorial. “. . . the biggest structural change [in food pricing] is biofuels. In the space of a few years, the U.S. has diverted about 40 million tonnes of maize to produce bioethanol—about 4 percent of global production of coarse grains. That rapid growth is largely the result of subsidies—which must halt. The environmental benefits of maize biofuel are ambiguous at best and it should not be favored over growing maize for food.”

The same should be said, of course, about the EU’s new commitment to provide 10 percent of its transport fuel from land-hungry biofuels, grown both in the EU countries and imported from such species-rich environments as Indonesia and Thailand. One of the great apes, the orangutan, is directly threatened by palm oil plantations because the apes love to eat the palm seedlings. Thousands of orangutans have been captured and killed because the palm oil plantations are an “attractive biofuel nuisance.”

U.S. corn farmers raised a record amount of grain last summer—but one-third of it is going into ethanol plants to “cure our addiction to foreign oil.” That corn will produce perhaps 10 billion gallons of ethanol—but nets out to just 50 gallons worth of gasoline per acre. That’s after subtracting the nitrogen fertilizer, the diesel fuel, the process heat for the ethanol plants—and ethanol’s 35 fewer Btu’s of energy per gallon.

Match 50 gallons worth of gasoline per acre against America’s annual demand for 135 billion gallons of gasoline! If we doubled corn yields, we’d still not achieve much “energy independence.” Nor would we feed the hungry.


DENNIS T. AVERY is a senior fellow for Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. and is the Director for Center for Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State. ALEX A. AVERY is the Director of Research at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Global Food Issues. Readers may write them at Post Office Box 202, Churchville, VA 24421.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Economic Impact of the Energy Bill and the Economic Stimulus

Since the release of his book Energy Keepers - Energy Killers, Roy Innis has become quite an advocate for energy. He is especially interested in the economic impact America's energy policies will have. Here he incorporates a wide spectrum of energy related issues in what has become CORE's energy platform. We at CARE believe this piece incorporates answers to many questions you may have as well. Read on!


Politicians Are Prescribing Aspirin To Treat The Economy They Are Poisoning
Congress and the White House, Democrats and Republicans finally agree on something!

We need a stimulus package, they intone. The economy is stagnating, unemployment is climbing, families can’t pay their bills. We have to prime the pump, reduce interest rates, increase unemployment benefits, provide temporary tax relief.

These unlicensed physicians are prescribing aspirin to counteract the poisons they routinely inject into our economy, while they prepare even bigger doses of arsenic.

Every one of these supposed shots of economic adrenaline is counteracted by toxic policies that drive up prices, cause layoffs and put families on energy welfare. It would be laughable, if it weren’t so hypocritical.

Oil, gas, coal and other resources on America’s citizen-owned public lands could meet US energy needs for centuries. Developing these resources – with full regard for ecological values – would generate jobs, economic growth and tax revenues, stabilize energy prices, and reduce our need to buy oil from unfriendly countries.

Onshore and offshore public lands could hold enough oil to produce gasoline for 60 million cars and fuel oil for 25 million homes for 60 years – and enough natural gas to heat 60 million homes for 160 years.

But Energy Killer legislators, regulators, courts and eco activists have made most of them unavailable to the workers and families who own them. In addition, a Utah area with a trillion dollars worth of public coal was placed off-limits by President Clinton. Nuclear power has been in a regulatory stranglehold for decades. And activists blocked construction of dozens of coal-fired electricity plants in 2007.

The “energy” legislation President Bush signed doesn’t foster the production of a single drop of oil, whiff of natural gas, or kilowatt of new coal or nuclear power. No wonder OPEC ministers rejected his plea to increase oil production. Instead, the bill:
* Adds $6,000 to the price of new cars, while reducing passenger safety, by forcing manufacturers to downsize cars to meet 35 mpg ratings;
* Replaces billions of incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent lights, necessitating expensive recycling facilities that can safely handle the mercury in each CFL;
* Increases ethanol production to 35 billion gallons a year – five times what we produced last year from corn grown on an area the size of Indiana, using 42 billion gallons of water and 5 billion gallons of petroleum (for fertilizers, pesticides and fuel);
* Promotes wind power – although generating enough electricity to power New York City requires huge turbines across an area the size of Connecticut, and they only work eight hours a day on average.

Because they keep our oil and gas locked up, these actions mean every barrel of oil “saved” via these “eco-friendly” measures is offset by reserves we use up and don’t replace. They create a huge energy gap between what we need – and what politicians let us have. Between real energy from fossil fuel, nuclear and hydroelectric power (96% of today’s energy) – and imaginary energy that politicians promise will someday come from wind, solar and ethanol (less than 1% today).

Worse, every ounce of “stimulus” is offset by a pound of new government arsenic.
Some 22,000 magnificent polar bears now roam the Arctic, and their numbers continue to increase. But bureaucrats and environmental activists want the bears designated as a “threatened” species.

Doing so would put courts and bureaucrats in charge of any activity that produces greenhouse gases: heating, cooling, transportation and manufacturing … bakeries, dry cleaners, hotels, office and apartment buildings, cement plants and dairy farms. The price of everything we do, eat, drive and wear would soar; jobs would disappear; and for millions the American Dream would slip out of reach.

Energy Killers justify these demands by pointing to computer models that conjure up disaster scenarios in which rising carbon dioxide causes icy habitats to melt 50-100 years from now, driving polar bears to extinction. However, hundreds of climate scientists emphasize that these models can’t forecast accurately even one year in advance, much less 50. They say there is no evidence that Earth’s moderate warming of the past century will turn into a disaster, or that CO2 is the primary cause of climate change.

Empirical evidence, they argue, demonstrates that climate change is driven primarily by solar energy output, cosmic rays and other natural causes. Indeed, average global temperatures have been stable since 2001, despite steadily rising CO2 levels.

Costly, punitive efforts to cut CO2 will likely have zero to minimal benefits. They would also affect crop and wild plant growth, which improves as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels increase.
Nevertheless, the same models and alarmist reasoning are being used to promote legislation to slash carbon dioxide emissions and establish complex cap-and-trade systems. Politicians claim the legislation will stabilize a climate that has changed repeatedly over the ages.

Senator Jeff Bingaman’s bill is the least draconian. But the EPA says even it would send gasoline prices up an extra 57 cents a gallon, spark a 20% increase in electricity prices, and cut up to $370 billion from our Gross Domestic Product.

These sacrifices would reduce global CO2 levels in 2050 by 1.5% and average temperature by perhaps 0.05 degrees.

Other bills would be vastly more expensive. Senator Joe Lieberman admits his bill would cost “hundreds of billions” of dollars. Others demand that we eliminate up to 80% of CO2 emissions by 2050.

All would give bureaucrats control over virtually every aspect of our lives. All would make reliable, affordable energy a distant memory – even with an all-out program to build more nuclear power plants, which is anathema to many greens and legislators. All would force industry to spend trillions of dollars to capture, pipeline and store carbon dioxide. Experts say forcing the CO2 into high pressure subterranean storage could trigger small earthquakes, and ruptures could cause gas leaks and mass asphyxiations.

To quell concerns about US jobs and riches heading to China and India, the Administration is prodding them to take “measurable actions” to cut CO2 emissions. But their focus is properly on reducing poverty through economic growth, and cleaning up filthy air and water. Speculative climate catastrophe is a low priority.

Congressional and other “physicians” who are experimenting on our energy, economy and lives need to abide by the Hippocratic Oath: First, do no harm.

Affordable, reliable energy transforms constitutionally protected rights into actual rights and opportunities for better jobs and living standards. Restricting energy supplies rolls back civil rights gains.

CORE is not going to let politicians do that. Neither should you.


Roy Innis is chairman of the Congress of Racial Equality (http://www.core-online.org/), one of America’s oldest civil rights organizations, and author of Energy Keepers - Energy Killers: The new civil rights battle.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

Is the Nobel Peace Prize Even Noble Anymore?

In 1895 when Alfred Nobel first conceived his award for peace, he had noble causes in mind: “the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between the nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses." Surely someone who has met this noble goal is worthy of laud. In this posting, CARE’s Energy Counsel Member Dennis Avery looks at the diminished importance of today’s Nobel Peace Prize when compared with recipients of the past. Sure the cash reward would be nice, but most of today’s recipients don’t even need it. Other than the receipt of the dollars, would you want to be in the current company of Nobel Peace Prize winners?




Diminishing The Nobel Peace Prize
In 1964, Martin Luther King won the Nobel Peace Prize for leading the non-violent crusade against racism and slavery—bettering not only America but the entire world.

In 1971, Willi Brandt won the Peace Prize for leading Germany’s peaceful reintegration back into the “world family of nations,” healing the destruction caused by Kaiser Wilhelm and Adolph Hitler with two World Wars that caused at least 70 million deaths.

In 1970, it went to my friend Norman Borlaug, the Green Revolution plant-breeder who: 1) saved 1 billion people from almost-immediate starvation, 2) prevented the plowdown of 16 million square miles of wildlands for more low-yield crops; and 3) just incidentally laid the foundation for the material abundance now spreading around the planet.

Now fast forward to look at recent Peace Prize winners:

In 1994, Yasser Arafat, the thuggish Islamic zealot who was lavishly paid to perpetuate Moslem/Jewish conflict in the Middle East. Arafat helped lay the groundwork for today’s round-the-world suicide bombings.

In 2001, The UN’s Kofi Annan: Did he end the genocide in Darfur? Stop the war in Kosovo? How about the billion-dollar UN corruption of Saddam Hussein’s “oil for food” program—assisted informally by his son?

Now we get Al Gore, a ho-hum U.S. politician catapulted to rock-star status by a moderate and natural global warming cycle, which has been hysterically inflated by the Green movement, willing media collaborators, and massive government funding for unproven computerized climate “models.” (Note: Mr. Gore’s movie has just been found guilty in a British court of 11 serious untruths and/or unsubstantiated claims.)

Gore says:
Ice core evidence shows rising CO2 levels raise earth’s temperatures. In fact, ice cores show the temperatures rising about 800 years before the CO2 levels go up.

Mt. Kilimanjaro’s melting glacier is proof of man-made warming. In fact, the melting is due largely to local deforestation.

The Antarctic ice is melting. Most studies say it’s stable or adding ice.

Hurricane Katrina was caused by global warming. Historic records show far more major, landfalling Caribbean hurricanes per decade from 1700–1850, during the Little Ice Age, than now.

Global warming could stop the Gulf Stream, and cause an Ice Age in Europe. Recent studies offer no support to help Mr. Gore on this one.

Global warming is causing species extinctions and coral reef bleaching. In fact, not one species has gone extinct due to warming. Coral reefs adjust to new temperatures—by bleaching.

A study shows polar bears drowning due to vanishing ice. In fact, four polar bears drowned in a bad storm.

Greenland’s ice could melt suddenly, causing a dangerous rise in sea levels. In fact, it will take thousands of warming years to melt Greenland’s ice cap.

Global warming is drying up Africa’s Lake Chad. The UK government agrees this is not true.

Gore’s scary graphics show cities drowning in a 7-meter sea level rise, creating millions of refugees. In fact, the 20th century increase was 6 inches and we’ve seen no acceleration. Even the UN climate change panel doesn’t agree with Mr. Gore’s scenario.

Rising seas have forced people to flee Pacific islands to New Zealand. There is no record of any evacuation triggered by sea level rise.

Just one last question for our new Nobel Peace laureate: Why did most of our moderate modern warming take place before 1940 (with 1934 being the warmest year) and why haven’t we had any warming over the last nine years? Could it possibly be the moderate natural 1,500-year cycle revealed in the ice cores and seabed sediments?



DENNIS T. AVERY was a senior policy analyst for the U.S. State Department, where he won the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement. He is the co-author, with atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book, Unstoppable Global Warming—Every 1500 Years, available from Rowman & Littlefield. Readers may write him at the Center for Global Food Issues (http://www.cgfi.org/) Post Office Box 202, Churchville, VA 24421.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

The Polar Bear Paradox


With the last posting on global warming ending with a note about public school teachers frightening little children with tales of cute polar bears dying because of global warming, it seemed appropriate to draw your attention to the plight of the global warming mascot. Not only are they supposedly dying from a loss of habitat, but as you’ll see, they are being killed by the native Inuit.

This piece, from the Business and Media Institute, addresses some of the media’s obsession with the polar bear. Be sure to click on the GMA link within the story. It is great fodder for discussion. What do you think?


Curbing Global Warming ... To Hunt Polar Bears
Now we must save the polar bear – so that we can kill it?

In the October 1 Time Magazine – an issue that is dedicated to “who owns the Arctic” – Managing Editor Richard Stengel compares two Arctic regions that have been affected by the warmer swing in temperatures in the northern regions of Norway and Canada.

Stengel reported on two different Arctic attitudes based on what two Time reporters are telling him. In Norway, the people are “delighted” because they are now able to harvest natural gas reserves. But people in Canada’s Nunavut territory are “not so sanguine.”

“In Resolute [in Nunavut territory], the native Inuit are not so sanguine about the benefits of balmy weather,” wrote Stengel. “One man invited [James] Graff [London-based senior editor of Time] to watch a videotape of his 16-year-old daughter killing her first polar bear, a rite of passage that is under threat as the melting ice reduces the bear population. For the Inuit, says Graff, ‘the idea that a warmer Arctic would be an easy place to live would occur only to someone from the South.’”

So, are we supposed to be saving the polar bear or hunting it?

Saving the lives of polar bears has been one of the focuses of global warming alarmism hysteria. On the September 18 “Good Morning America,” ABC’s global warming reporter Bill Blakemore stressed how important it was for the polar bear’s habitat that we curb greenhouse gas emissions.

If the polar bears are struggling because of global warming, they’re certainly not showing it according to at least one report. A study reported in the September 3 Telegraph (U.K.) showed the polar bears are thriving.

“There aren't just a few more bears,” said Mitch Taylor, a polar bear biologist who has spent 20 years studying the animals, to the Telegraph. “There are a hell of a lot more bears.”